Public Policy for Sustainable Economic Development: Steering Entrepreneurship, Trade and Technological Innovation
My research is on public policy for sustainable economic development, in particular through steering entrepreneurship, trade and and technology. I approach this from an economics perspective, constructing theoretical models and employing a broad toolkit of quantitative techniques, including game theory and econometrics, to draw policy implications for human flourishing a sustainable global civilisation.
Three topics in this regard that I am currently focusing on are:
(1) Economic growth and artificial intelligence;
(2) Phase transitions in economic growth: rethinking structural transformation and societal collapse; and
(3) Entrepreneurship and resilience in fragile states.
Read below for more details.
1) Economic Growth and Artificial Intelligence
The aim of this agenda is twofold.
One is to model AI in economics so as to study its possible implications for growth in GDP, productivity, wages as well as understand the impact on labour markets better. Throughout, public policy implications are scrutinised.
See : Artificial Intelligence in Economics, Journal for Labour Market Research, 2022, 56 (12). https://doi.org/10.1186/s12651-022-00319-2 (with Gries, T).
Two is to model the impact of AI on economic growth, and ask whether AI will cause a growth explosion? This work focuses on the role of AI in the ideas production function, and has implications for public policy towards innovation, science and learning.
In 2024 Cambridge University Press will publish my co-authored book on Artificial Intelligence: Economic Perspectives and Models. It includes an exploration of the nature of AI in light of Fermi’s Paradox and the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, and considers the extent to which AI is a collective intelligence emerging in the Noösphere.
2) Phase-transitions and Economic Growth: Rethinking Structural Transformation and Societal Collapse
This pillar of my research agenda is concerned with the question of the ultimate sustainability of economic growth. It critically examines the green growth and degrowth paradigms, and asks whether societal collapse is a feature, and not a bug of the phase-transitions marking the long-term development of civilisation. It also makes the case for a Humpty Dumpty Economics, that is, an economic growth theory that assigns a more prominent role for energy and entropy. It takes care to outline options for public policy in an increasingly energy scarce world.
In this pillar a concern is on late industrialising regions, such as Sub-Saharan Africa. Accordingly. the question is investigates whether, and how, SSA can industrialise and grow, and what are the implications for structural transformation in SSA given the energy transition and digital (AI) revolution.
In 2023 Palgrave Macmillan published my book Economic Growth and Societal Collapse: Beyond Green Growth and Degrowth Fairy Tales, wherein these themes, their public policy implications, and the broader research agenda is elaborated.
3) Entrepreneurship and Innovation for Resilience in Fragile and Conflict Affected Situations
I study the nature and implications of fragile and conflict affected situations (FCAS) and how private sector development, including entrepreneurship and technological innovation, can either worsen or reduce fragility. Slower growth, the stagnation in innovation, and the heavy burden of climate change, and rising state-based conflicts worldwide, poses the danger of turning more and more fragile states’ economies into zero-sum games. This work extends my pioneering work on fragile states, which includes one of the very first scholarly volumes on the topic, published in 2011 by Oxford University Press.
Part of the focus is on measuring vulnerability to various risks, and how countries and regions that face fragility and conflict are more susceptible to damages from climate change, pandemics, and other hazards. The aim is to identify implications for public policy to reduce vulnerability to various adverse events and build resilience.
My co-edited book, the Handbook of Research on Entrepreneurship and Conflict, will be published in 2024 by Edward Elgar publishers.